Tips of the day

Segunda DivisiónWon1:1

CastellónAlmeria

Why this pick: Both teams played attacking and productive football throughout the season, especially Almería, who also conceded quite a lot of goals. Because of that, the odds on the under look fairly attractive. However, playoff matches are a completely different story, with an enormous level of responsibility involved. Even financially, promotion to La Liga represents a major step forward for both clubs. That is why I do not expect an open game here. The last two head-to-head meetings ended 1–0 and 2–0, which also supports the possibility of a more cautious and low-scoring encounter.

FriendliesWon1:2

USAGermany

Why this pick: This friendly between the USA and Germany features two attack-minded teams with clear offensive profiles. The USA rely on a young, dynamic front line but still struggle defensively, often allowing chances even against moderate opponents. Germany remain one of the most consistent attacking teams in Europe, regularly scoring multiple goals and maintaining a high offensive output under Nagelsmann. Given both teams’ tendency to both score and concede, the match profile strongly points toward an open, high-tempo game with goals on both sides and a likely high total.

FriendliesVoid2:1

PortugalChile

Why this pick: Portugal possess far greater overall quality and attacking depth, even if their qualification campaign was not always convincing. Their recent performances still demonstrated the ability to dominate weaker opponents and control matches when necessary. Chile arrive after a disappointing qualification run, particularly away from home where defensive issues were a major concern. However, recent friendlies suggest a more open and aggressive approach, with their matches becoming far more entertaining and high-scoring. With less pressure in a friendly environment, both teams could play with greater freedom than usual, increasing the likelihood of an open and dynamic game.

Why this pick: Portland’s return to the league has been relatively solid so far, sitting around the middle of the standings with six wins and five losses. They recently managed to snap a six-game losing streak with an important road win against Seattle, which could help restore confidence. Phoenix Mercury also come into this matchup with some question marks after a narrow win in their last game, which did not fully convince in terms of defensive stability. Portland averages around 83 points per game, with key contributors like Carleton (14.7 PPG) and Jeite (15.2 PPG) providing consistent scoring output. Phoenix, meanwhile, allow around 86.1 points per game on average, which suggests defensive vulnerabilities. Given Portland’s offensive profile and Phoenix’s defensive numbers, the home team’s team total over 79.5 looks like a reasonable angle.