Tips of the day

Major League SoccerLost3:3

St. Louis CityFC Dallas

Why this pick: Based on this, I’ll bet on St. Louis not losing at home in front of their fans. This is evident from the statistics of their recent matches, the hosts’ home record, and the head-to-head meetings. For the same reasons, I won’t expect more than three goals.

Serie ALost0:1

CagliariInter

Why this pick: Still, we rule Inter out of the equation, at least in Serie A. If any other team were the opponent, I would believe in Cagliari’s defence and consider the Under, but when it comes to Inter, it is very hard to believe that the hosts will manage to contain the Nerazzurri’s attack. Therefore, I suggest considering the visitors’ goals.

Serie ALost1:0

LazioGenoa

Why this pick: Lazio also clearly have the potential to play more brightly and interestingly in attack. The latest head-to-head meetings are quite telling: 3:2, 0:3, 0:2 — we are not seeing particularly low-scoring encounters.

Czech LigaLost0:3

Sparta PrahaSlavia Praha

Why this pick: Sparta have scored in 19 of their last 20 home league matches, while Slavia have scored in 19 of 20 away matches. The opponents’ statistics suggest we can expect attacking contributions from both sides.

Pro LeagueVoid3:1

Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Faisaly FC

Why this pick: Al Qadsiah are the clear favorite. Three convincing wins by at least two goals. Their only defeat came against one of the best teams in Saudi Arabia, whom they outplayed in terms of chances (xG 2.63 versus 0.26); the dropped points were accidental. The average xG difference is +2.34, while in actual matches it is +2 goals. Meanwhile, Al Faisaly lost three of their four matches by a two-goal margin. The home side have an obvious advantage. I expect a big win for Al Qadsiah. I am betting on the home handicap (-1.5).

La LigaLost3:1

Deportivo La CorunaValencia

Why this pick: The visitors are also not known for high-scoring performances and have yet to score in the current championship. Both teams should play cautiously and will not offer each other many chances.

Serie ALost1:2

NapoliComo

Why this pick: Moreover, head-to-head meetings against Como also do not often delight spectators with goals—the last match ended 0:0. Overall, Fabregas's team also know how to keep possession and dry up the game, so I think the most optimal option today is Under.

Pro LeagueWon1:1

Al-HazmAl Shabab

Why this pick: I would bet on the visitors not losing. Two main arguments: the difference in class (squad values of €37.2 million versus €13.3 million) and the head-to-head history (three away wins at this ground). However, I do not think they will be able to shut the game down as they did before. On average, they allow chances worth 1.9 xG, have conceded in three of their four matches, and embarrassingly crashed out of the Cup. Al Hazem should not be underestimated: their average xG figures are 1.6 versus 1.62. Goals were also scored in three of their four matches. Today I will bet on both teams to score with the advantage to the visitors.

La LigaWon4:0

Real MadridMalaga

Why this pick: Málaga are not yet ready to compete on equal terms with the leading La Liga teams. The newcomers have too few resources in attack to regularly threaten the favourite’s goal. I expect another Real Madrid win, but this time without conceding.

EliteserienWon4:2

Bodo/GlimtRosenborg

Why this pick: I am leaning toward the fact that today we can and should expect an entertaining match: at least 3 goals scored with both teams finding the net.

First LeagueWon0:2

Ska-khabarovskTorpedo Moskva

Why this pick: There are conflicting factors: Khabarovsk have not lost three consecutive head-to-head meetings at home. But they are out of form now, sit second from bottom and have managed only one win. The Muscovites, meanwhile, are in excellent form and are challenging for the top four. I think Torpedo will not drop points today, will take all three points, and the match will be high-scoring.